Forecast Discussion for MFL NWS Office
000
FXUS62 KMFL 281134
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
734 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
A cold front will be moving across the region today with increasing
shower and thunderstorm activity through the morning hours. Radar
currently shows the weakening remnants from an MCS moving across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico towards the peninsula and the Florida Keys.
Behind this convective activity is the surface front edging forward
with a mid-level trough trailing it through the eastern Gulf. While
the best support for convection will remain well north of the
region, showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the front
moving through this morning and afternoon. Thunderstorm chances will
be a tad lower than overall rain chances but high enough to warrant
mention in the forecast.
As the trough axis clears through later today and begins to lift
north, the surface boundary will clear into the Bahamas by tonight
allowing drier air to enter the region. While this is a cold front,
there is little in the way of cold, continental air behind the
boundary. Therefore, South Florida will cool a few degrees compared
to previous days but still range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s
on Friday afternoon under sunny skies. Overnight lows tonight into
Friday morning will drop a few degrees as well with some mid 50s
sneaking into inland Southwest Florida and 60s elsewhere along the
coasts.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
High pressure builds across the area on Friday, leading to warm and
dry conditions through the extended period. The next mentionable
POPs come into play during the middle of next week as the next
frontal boundary pushes down the Florida peninsula on Wednesday.
A warming trend will begin Saturday as the surface high settles in
and high temperatures rise into the 80s by Sunday. Temperatures
continue to rise through week as afternoon highs may reach the low
90s across much of the region by Wednesday. Overnight lows will warm
as well, but with mostly clear skies, much of the region will still
cool into the upper 50s (interior/Lake O) and 60s elsewhere.&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Deteriorating conditions ahead of the approaching cold front.
Sub-VFR possible early this morning with a rain shield moving into
Southwest Florida. The main convective activity will move through
later in this morning into the afternoon with the front clearing
through by the evening and the wind shifting out of the W to NW
and then NNW. Short-fused AMDs will likely be needed for sub-VFR
TEMPOs including for bouts of IFR/LIFR.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 725 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Breezy southerly to southwesterly winds this morning ahead of the
passage of a cold front. There is a chance for VCSH and potential
sub- VFR conditions at all sites around noon as the front drops
through, but impacts to the terminals have been trending down.
Winds will veer from the W to NW, then from the NNW this evening
once the front clears the area.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Hazardous marine conditions remain across the local waters with a
moderate to fresh southeasterly to southerly breeze. In the wake of
the frontal passage today, hazardous conditions will return across
all local waters with potential gusts to gale force and seas of 7 to
10 feet.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
A high risk of rip currents remains in effect for all South Florida
beaches today as a cold front moves across the region. The Atlantic
beaches high risk will likely persist through much of the remainder
of this week. The Gulf beaches will see their rip current risk
diminish to close out the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 84 63 78 64 / 30 0 10 10
West Kendall 85 59 80 60 / 30 0 10 0
Opa-Locka 86 63 79 62 / 30 0 10 10
Homestead 84 61 78 63 / 30 0 10 0
Fort Lauderdale 85 63 77 64 / 30 0 10 10
N Ft Lauderdale 85 64 77 64 / 30 0 10 0
Pembroke Pines 86 62 79 62 / 30 0 10 10
West Palm Beach 84 63 76 62 / 30 0 0 0
Boca Raton 85 63 78 64 / 40 0 10 0
Naples 79 60 80 59 / 40 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ069.
High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173.
High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ610.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Friday
for AMZ630.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for GMZ656-657-676.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...ATV
NWS MFL Office Area Forecast Discussion