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 Hurricane Outlook Discussion - Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico
AXNT20 KNHC 230000

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2330 UTC.


Caribbean Gale Warning: The combination of high pressure in the 
central Atlantic and lower pressures over northern Colombia will 
allow trades in the SW Caribbean near the coast of Colombia to 
increase to minimal gale force late tonight and Tue morning then 
subside back to strong by noon. Seas are expected to build to 10 
to 13 ft with these winds. Winds are expected to pulse back to 
gale force again late Tue night into Wed morning. Model guidance 
indicates that the pulsing to minimal gale will continue through 
the rest of the week. Please see latest NHC High Seas Forecast 
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Gale force winds are forecast to 
commence Tue afternoon in the SW Gulf behind a cold front that 
is across the NW Gulf coast this evening. The cold front will 
reach from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche 
tonight, and from Straits of Florida across Yucatan Peninsula to 
Veracruz Mexico on Tue night, then move SE of the area on Wed. 
Minimal gale force NW to N winds are likely near the coast of 
Veracruz Tue afternoon, then diminish to strong winds Tue night. 
Gale force winds may return briefly to the same area Wed night, 
then diminish significantly on Thu. Please see the latest NHC 
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC 
for more details.


The monsoon trough axis extends from western Africa near 06N09W 
to 01N19W. The ITCZ begins near 01N19W and extends to 02N32W to 
South America near 01N49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 33W-35W. 
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 180 nm N of 
the axis between 33W-35W, and within 30 nm either side of a line 
from 02N25W to 03N30W.



A cold front extends from New Orleans, Louisiana to 23N98W in 
eastern Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are 
along a squall line just ahead of the front. Behind the front, 
conditions rapidly dry out in strong high pressure centered over 
northern Texas. The cold front will reach the far SE Gulf waters 
on Tue night, and move to SE of the area on Wed. The gradient 
associated with the aforementioned strong high pressure will 
support fresh to strong northerly winds over much of the Gulf 
through Wed.


Diffluence aloft supports isolated showers and few thunderstorms 
over portions of the NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds were 
noted in the latest scatterometer data over much of the central 
Caribbean, with the strongest winds near the coast of Colombia. 
Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted elsewhere across the 
basin. The pressure gradient provided by high pressure N of the 
area should allow for fresh to strong NE to E trades to occur W 
of about 70W elsewhere through late Wed night. Strong NE winds 
are expected through the Windward Passage after Wed. A cold 
front in the Gulf of Mexico will enter the NW Caribbean Wed 
night, followed by increasing strong NE winds and seas building 
to around 10 ft.


Ridging dominates the western Atlantic anchored by high pressure 
centered near 31N60W, with a ridge extending westward into the 
Gulf of Mexico. A robust mid/upper level trough is evident on 
water vapor imagery extending from a cyclonic circulation near 
33N64W to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and few thunderstorms 
are north of Hispaniola to 25N, and from 20N to 26N between 65W 
and 70W. Isolated showers are elsewhere N of 19N between 60W and 
70W. A stationary front is located over the E central Atlantic 
from near 32N38W to 26N43W to 24N46W. Divergence aloft E of the 
upper level cyclonic circulation is helping to trigger scattered 
showers and thunderstorms from 24N to 28N between 37W and 40W.
Expect shower activity to expand eastward through Wed ahead of 
the trough to 50W. A cold front will move off the NE Florida 
coast on Tue afternoon, and reach from near 31N73W to Straits of 
Florida on Wed morning, and from Bermuda to central Cuba on Thu 
morning. Strong NE winds under high pressure will follow behind 
the front. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms with 
gusty winds will precede the front.

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