460
FXUS62 KMFL 300528
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
Issued by National Weather Service Key West FL
128 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 124 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Deep-layer ridging will settle in across the region today as the
surface ridge axis remains entrenched across the western Atlantic
waters. Drier low level air will continue to advect into the region
via anticyclonic flow, reinforcing the status quo, a period of dry
and quiet weather lasting for the rest of the work week. Given the
continued lack of any synoptic flow aloft, the daytime weather
regime will once again be dictated by mesoscale processes such as
the typical sea-breeze circulations. Winds will veer onshore along
the gulf coast each afternoon as easterly flow keeps the gulf
sea-breeze boundary over inland southwestern Florida late in the
day. Outside of some shallow low-level boundary layer cumulus,
Subsidence and a consequent capping inversion will keep any
vertical development (and rainfall) to a minimum. A temperature
gradient will remain with us both afternoons as breezy easterly
onshore flow keeps temperatures cool along the east coast (low to
mid 80s) with warmer temperatures across the western half of South
Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 124 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Anticyclonic mid-level flow begins to break down during the day on
Friday as deep-layer ridging begins to slowly erode with surface
winds beginning to veer to a light southeasterly to southerly
component late on Friday into Saturday morning. This subtle change
is due in large part to the next weak surface boundary approaching
the region this weekend in tandem with a mid-level trough moving
across the eastern half of the United States. As the boundary washes
out across the region with a deeper envelope of moisture, mesoscale
processes(sea-breezes) will continue to dictate the weather regime
each afternoon. Ensemble and deterministic model guidance continues
to hint at the potential of a few mid-level impulses rotating around
the base of the aforementioned trough and across the region late
weekend into early next week. The combination of deeper moisture,
greater instability, and convergent boundaries could potentially
set the stage for the next opportunity of measurable rain across
the region. This setup is still a few days out and this airmass
currently in place has been persistently anhydrous. The
deterministic GFS and European models over the past 24 hours have
continued to delay the heaviest precipitation occurring across
the region to a later time while also depicting lesser rainfall
totals. Hopefully as we get closer in time, we can decipher some
more clarity for the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025

SCT MVFR ceilings across the east coast terminals throughout the
06Z TAF period. E/NE winds 5-10 kts becoming 10-15 kts with gusts
of 20-25 kts after 15Z through the early evening. An afternoon
Gulf breeze will try to develop at APF after 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 124 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025

A period of cautionary conditions for small craft will continue
across the Atlantic waters through Thursday with periods of
cautionary conditions also occurring across the local gulf waters.
Seas will remain 4-5 feet across the Gulf Stream waters this
morning before gradually decreasing to 2-4 feet by Thursday morning.
Waves will remain in the 2-3 feet range across the Gulf waters
through Thursday morning.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 124 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025

A high risk of rip currents will prevail at all east coast beaches
today. As breezy to gusty easterly flow continues, the elevated
risk of rip currents will continue through Friday. When in doubt,
dont go out!

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 124 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Although winds will remain light across inland locales this
afternoon, relative humidity values will drop to near or just above
critical levels (mid to upper 30s) across inland southwestern Florida.
This may result in enhanced fire behavior as vegetation remains
quite dry across these areas. Closer to both coasts, relative
humidity values will remain well above thresholds as onshore flow
moderates relative humidity values as sea-breezes move inland.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  72  82  72 /   0   0  10  10
West Kendall     84  68  84  69 /   0   0  10  10
Opa-Locka        83  71  84  71 /   0   0  10  10
Homestead        82  71  82  72 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  80  72  81  72 /   0   0  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  80  71  81  72 /   0   0  10  10
Pembroke Pines   85  72  86  73 /   0   0  10  10
West Palm Beach  80  70  82  70 /   0   0  10  10
Boca Raton       82  71  84  72 /   0   0  10  10
Naples           88  66  86  67 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hadi
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...CMF
NWS MFL Office Area Forecast Discussion